VBA Forecast Engine Industry
Impact Study - Issue 2

Analysis of Estimates for Insights on the Economic Recovery

Six months into the economic crisis, the possibility of a decisive V-shaped recovery is realistic only for a few select industries. Most industries continue to see a long road to recovery, although there is evidence that expectations for many industries have improved over the last three months.

Analyzing the results by industry shows stark differences, both in terms of near-term impacts as well as the timing and extent of recovery. Although a decline in expected revenues and profits is to be expected for certain industries, the magnitude of the reductions and long-term impact conveyed by estimates continues to be severe.

In Issue 2 of our Forecast Engine Industry Impact Study, we revisit the themes from the previous study and explore new questions on the economic recovery including:

• Has the disconnect between forecasted fundamentals and equity prices continued or are estimates catching up to the rapidly climbing equity markets?
• How accurate have estimates proved to be since the beginning of the current crisis, and how does such accuracy compare to more stable environments?
• Which industries have begun to recover since the initial shock of the crisis, and alternatively, which continue to see their estimates depressed or continue to decline?